September 2026
Democrats' generic ballot lead reaches new high
In recent days, the Democrats' longstanding lead on the generic ballot has grown to about 8 percentage points in Decision Desk HQ's average. The pro-Democratic electoral environment has propelled the party to new heights in our Senate and House forecasts. As of Sept. 23, Democrats had a 55% chance of capturing the Senate and a 72% chance of flipping the House.
Alabama
Leader: D. Aikerson
Live
Leader: O. Chapman
Live
Leader: C. King
Live
Leader: V. Williams
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Leader: L. Alexander
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Leader: J. Robinson
Live
Leader: L. Kyle
Live
Iowa
South Carolina
2026 could set a modern record for congressional turnover
At least 18% of senators and representatives who have served in the 119th Congress will not be back in 2027. This marks the second-highest pre-November congressional turnover rate in the past half century. It could set the stage for the 2026 general election to produce enough incumbent defeats to set a new overall modern turnover record, surpassing the 1992 cycle.
Can Susan Collins outrun the polls in Maine again?
Sen. Susan Collins trailed Democrat Sara Gideon in Maine's final 2020 polls, but won 51%-42%. Here in 2026, Collins is narrowly behind again: Troy Jackson leads 47%-45% in DDHQ's polling average. The DDHQ Forecast gives each about a 1 in 2 shot at winning. Yet this is the toughest midterm electoral environment that Collins has ever faced in her political career.
Minnesota's Senate race could be close
Minnesota hasn't elected a GOP senator since 2002, and this midterm may not seem like a promising time for Republicans to break that streak. But our polling average finds Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan with only a small lead over Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster. Flanagan may be weaker due to the Medicaid fraud scandal that has tarnished Minnesota Democrats.
Abbott continues to hold an edge in Texas
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term as governor of Texas in the fall. While favored, Abbott faces a potentially competitive challenge from Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Abbott leads Hinojosa in Decision Desk HQ's polling average by low-to-mid single digits. Abbott has about a 3 in 4 chance of victory in our gubernatorial forecast.
Republicans look unlikely to gain much — if anything — from redistricting
Republicans can't count on redistricting to save them in the House. Not only are Democrats favored to capture the chamber, but they may even gain seats in the redistricted states. In Decision Desk HQ’s forecast, Democrats not only achieve an average gain of 13 seats in the states with unchanged boundaries, they also gain an average of 2 seats across the nine states that redistricted.
