G
Forecasted Win Probability
Anna Luna*
Leela Gray
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 75% fundamentals, 5% polls, and 20% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Leela Gray | 51.00% |
| Anna Paulina Luna | 46.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Anna Paulina Luna | 47.00% |
| Leela Gray | 44.00% |
| Other Option | 6.00% |
| Tony D'Arrigo | 4.00% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Anna Paulina Luna | 49.00% |
| Leela Gray | 41.00% |
| Other Option | 10.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Paulina Luna | $3,233,312 | $1,890,603 | $146,473 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
| Anna Paulina Luna | $2,988,238 | $1,664,288 | $146,473 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Anna Paulina Luna | $2,298,615 | $1,054,589 | $143,473 | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
 Leela Gray | $1,223,069 | $539,774 | - | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
