G
Forecasted Win Probability
Nick Begich*
Bill Hill
Decision Desk HQ's forecast for this race blends 64% fundamentals, 11% polls, and 25% markets. Fundamentals capture the structural conditions of the race, including partisan baseline adjusted for national environment, incumbency, presidential party cycle effects, and net campaign financial advantage.
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Nick Begich | 50.60% |
| Bill Hill | 39.10% |
| John Williams | 5.70% |
| Eric Hafner | 4.60% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Nick Begich | 47.90% |
| Bill Hill | 33.20% |
| Eric Hafner | 14.70% |
| Clay Strickland | 4.20% |
| Candidate | Result |
|---|---|
| Nick Begich | 46.00% |
| Bill Hill | 42.00% |
How candidates and outside groups are spending money in this race
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Outside Support | Outside Oppose | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nick Begich | $5,470,446 | $2,455,619 | $44,025 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
| Nick Begich | $5,261,611 | $2,085,524 | $42,752 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
| Nick Begich | $4,307,323 | $1,581,037 | $42,752 | - | APRIL QUARTERLY | 3/31/2026 |
 Bill Hill | $1,336,292 | $820,406 | $2,186,256 | - | PRE-PRIMARY | 7/29/2026 |
| Bill Hill | $1,170,869 | $468,242 | $326,261 | - | JULY QUARTERLY | 6/30/2026 |
