ForecastLast updated Sep 2, 3:24 PM
Below is a list of all 36 governor forecasts Decision Desk HQ is tracking in the 2026 election. States are listed in order of competitiveness, with the closest races at the top.
| State | DemocraticRepublican | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio | 51% | Toss Up |
| Iowa | 58% | Toss Up |
| Nevada | 58% | Toss Up |
| Alaska | 62% | Lean R |
| Georgia | 63% | Lean D |
| New Hampshire | 67% | Lean R |
| Florida | 68% | Lean R |
| Arizona | 69% | Lean D |
| Wisconsin | 69% | Lean D |
| Michigan | 71% | Lean D |
| Kansas | 74% | Lean R |
| Texas | 75% | Likely R |
| South Carolina | 77% | Likely R |
| Oregon | 82% | Likely D |
| New Mexico | 84% | Likely D |
| Maine | 86% | Likely D |
| New York | 88% | Likely D |
| Connecticut | 90% | Likely D |
| Colorado | 91% | Likely D |
| Minnesota | 91% | Likely D |
| Nebraska | 91% | Likely R |
| Illinois | 93% | Likely D |
| Pennsylvania | 93% | Likely D |
| Alabama | 95% | Safe R |
| Rhode Island | 95% | Safe D |
| Tennessee | 95% | Safe R |
| California | 97% | Safe D |
| Oklahoma | 97% | Safe R |
| Arkansas | 98% | Safe R |
| South Dakota | 98% | Safe R |
| Vermont | 98% | Safe R |
| Hawaii | 99% | Safe D |
| Massachusetts | 99% | Safe D |
| Idaho | >99% | Safe R |
| Maryland | >99% | Safe D |
| Wyoming | >99% | Safe R |
